Crude Oil Bearish 7/27/20
Directional Opinion: We settled in a bull leg. Settlement below $40.93 will start this in a bear leg. On a macro basis: On 4/29 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of renewed strength, possibly for days—we saw $21.14 of this, rolled into (U). On 5/5 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below that warned of higher trade for days/weeks. We have seen $15.49 of this so far, rolled into (U). These are ON HOLD. I would NOTE: that in the (U) contract there are two major pictures being played out: 1.) the decent break above $36.15 projects this upward $14.15 (+), but will not be negated until this trades $32.60; and 2.) on the way up there are major areas of possible exhaustion to contend with if this is a corrective move against the move down from $61.44 to $21.99 which come in at $41.71-2.45, $46.37-72 and higher—the lower of which we held at $42.51 and rolled over $2.00.
On a short-term basis: The decent trade below $40.99 (+.8 of a tic per/hour) should bring in decent pressure; but if we break below back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. NOTE: although the WTI and Brent both failed bullish formations; the RBOB, Heat, and Gas Oil have not failed theirs—so today we will likely see confirmation one way or the other.
NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Crude and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.
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