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Crude Oil in Bullish Correction or Trend


On a macro basis:On 4/29 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of renewed strength for days—we saw $21.14 of this, rolled into (X).On 5/5 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below that warned of higher trade for days/weeks.We have seen $15.49 of this so far, rolled into (X). I would NOTE: that there are two major pictures being played out: 1.) the decent break above $36.88 projects this upward $12.45 (+), of which we have attained $7.17 so far, but will not be negated until this trades $33.76; and 2.) on the way up there are major areas of possible exhaustion to contend with which come in at $44.08 (the high of this contract was $44.05), $46.69-8.71 and higher.Decent trade below $37.02-7.00 will project this downward $2.80 minimum, $7.50 (+) maximum and could bring in a run to test below $24.40(-).


On a short-term basis:The decent trade below $43.63 brought in $6.95 of decent pressure. Trade below $42.83 (+.5 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $7.00 of pressure.This is ON HOLD.The decent trade above $39.58 (-.7 of a tic per/hour) warns of higher trade.We have seen $1.28 of this so far. If we break back below decently, look for decent profit taking to come in.This will come in at $39.41 (-.7 of a tic per/hour starting at 9:00am).I have noted: since the complex violated bearish patterns, and has now taken out bullish patterns as well, I would expect the complex to rally for days. The only caveat to this is we have gapped higher two days in a row, so we may see some consolidative/backfill before resuming higher trade.Today has a good likelihood of being a range expansion day. A maintained gap lower will leave a short-term bearish reversal above.


NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Crude and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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