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Crude Oil in Consolidation 12/30/20


On a macro basis: On 4/29 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of renewed strength for days—we have seen $34.45 from that open at $14.98 in the (M). On 5/5 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $26.35 from $23.08. These are ON HOLD. We may be in a macro correction against the move down from $114.83 in May of 2011. If so, areas of possible exhaustion come in at $49.26, $57.96-$60.66 and higher. We basically held the lower of these with a $49.43 high and rolled over $3.18 before short covering off the low.


On a short-term basis: We held exhaustion below with a $34.04 low and rallied $15.39. On 11/3 we left a short-term bullish reversal below that warned of strength for days. We have seen $11.17 of this so far. On 11/16 we left a short-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $7.37. The decent trade above $45.21 (-1 tic per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen $4.22 of this so far before rolling over. These are ON HOLD. On 12/21 we left a short-term bearish reversal above that warned we may be headed into a further bearish correction/trend against the move up from $34.50 at the beginning of November. The short-term bearish reversal above will be negated with a decent break above $48.63. However, the decent break back above $46.75 brought in $2.21 of short covering against this bearishness. Decent trade below $46.73-67 will project this downward $2.40 minimum, $3.20 (+) maximum based off an ‘ok formed’ pattern; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. NOTE: the equivalent pattern in Brent is more well-formed. Areas of possible exhaustion if we come off, come in at $45.69-40 (minor), $43.73-67 (moderate), and lower. Today will likely see range expansion.


NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Crude and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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