Crude Oil Overall Bullish, but Currently Holding Exhaustion 12/16/20
On a macro basis: On 4/29 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of renewed strength for days—we have seen $32.93 from that open at $14.98 in the (M). On 5/5 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $24.83 from $23.08. We could be in a macro correction against the move down from $114.83 in May of 2011. If so, areas of possible exhaustion come in at $47.88-49.26 (which we held this AM), $57.96-$60.66 and higher. Keeping in mind the macro bull call from Unleaded Gas [I would NOTE: on a Weekly chart (which you have to take with a grain of salt to some degree as it spans many contracts) we settled above a significant bullish formation that came in at 12307. This projects this upward 30 cents minimum, $1.25 (+) maximum. The maximum could be seen within 5 calendar months.The line for this formation comes in at 12199 this week.If we fail this solidly, the market should come off considerably.], these may act as temporary resistance on the way up if we trend through them.
On a short-term basis: We held exhaustion below with a $34.04 low and rallied $13.87. On 11/3 we left a short-term bullish reversal below that warned of strength for days. We have seen $9.65 of this so far. The decent trade above $42.23 warned of decent renewed strength we have seen $5.68 of this. The decent trade above $45.21 (-1 tic per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen $2.70 of this so far. This may also be in a final stretch of the move up from $34.04, with possible exhaustion areas above for the lower timeframe move upward at $48.18-21, $49.63, and higher. Decent trade below $46.90 (-1 tic per/hour starting at 9:00am) should bring in decent pressure. Decent trade below $46.09 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 9:00am) will project this downward $1.85 minimum, $2.35 (+) maximum; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. Today has a good likelihood of seeing range expansion.
NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Crude and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.
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