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CRUDE OIL PROJECTED LOWER 10/12/20


Directional Opinion: We settled in a bull leg, but I would disregard this for now. Settlement below $39.22 will start this in a bear leg. On a macro basis: On 4/29 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of renewed strength for days—we saw $21.14 of this, rolled into (X). On 5/5 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below that warned of higher trade for days/weeks. We have seen $15.49 of this so far, rolled into (X). These are ON HOLD. I would NOTE: that there are two major pictures being played out: 1.) the decent break above $36.88 projects this upward $12.45 (+), of which we have attained $7.17 so far, but will not be negated until this trades $33.76; and 2.) on the way up there are major areas of possible exhaustion to contend with which come in at $44.08 (the high of this contract was $44.05), $46.69-8.71 and higher. Decent trade below $37.07-06 will project this downward $4.30 minimum, $7.50 (+) maximum and could bring in a run to test below $24.40(-).


On a short-term basis: The failure back below the $40.86-85 formation has brought in $1.05 of pressure, and the decent break below $40.61 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) warns of further pressure, likely down toward $39.25 (-). Decent break below $38.91 (-.7 of a tic per/hour starting at 9:00am) should bring in continued pressure, likely down toward the $36.70 (-) area. A maintained gap lower will leave a short-term bearish reversal above.


NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Crude and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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