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Crude Poised for Higher Trade 11/18/20


Directional Opinion: We settled in a bull leg. Settlement below $41.87 will start this in a bear leg. On a macro basis: On 4/29 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of renewed strength for days—we saw $21.14 of this, rolled into (F). On 5/5 we left a medium-term bullish reversal below that warned of higher trade for days/weeks. We have seen $15.49 of this so far, rolled into (F). These are ON HOLD. NOTE: On the way up there was a major area of possible exhaustion warned about at $44.08. The high of (X) was $44.05, and we have rolled over $10.44. This is ON HOLD as well.


On a short-term basis: We held an equivalent exhaustion area below in the (F) with a $34.04 low and rallied $9.29. The maintained gap higher on 11/3 left a short-term bullish reversal below that warned of short covering, likely for days. We have seen $4.70 of this so far. The maintained gap higher Monday left a short-term bullish reversal below. Decent trade below $41.12 will negate this and warn of renewed pressure. I would warn this may be in a final stretch of a move up from $34.04, with possible exhaustion areas above at $43.87-4.14, $45.18, $45.96-6.07 and higher—any of which have the potential to bring in a bearish correction exceeding $3.00. If we break above $43.32-34 and trade/settle back below, this will also warn of an early termination of the bull structure and likely entry into a bearish correction.


NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Crude and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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