Gold is Bearish Within Macro Bearish Correction, but Testing Exhaustion Levels
On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5 of this. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $744.2 of this. On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below. We have seen $470.7. The above bullish formations have been ON HOLD since 12/31/20. I noted we had a higher timeframe exhaustion to contend with that came in at $2,071.6-93.2 that had the potential to bring in a bearish correction—we held this at $2,089.2 and have rolled over $322 into that correction. We held exhaustion above at $1,999.7-$2,006.5 with a $2,001.2 high and rolled over $234. The decent trade below $1,915.7 (+2 tics per/hour) brought in $114.9 of the $75 (+) maximum. The 1/8/21 move down suggests one of two things: 1.) this may be in a new macro bearish stretch, putting the bearish correction from $2,089.2 down back in play, or 2.) we may be building a higher level of consolidation up here—I think the first is more likely.
On a lower timeframe basis: We held lower time frame exhaustion above at $1,857.4-60.4 with a $1,856.6 high and rolled over $74.8 into a bearish trend against the move up from $1,784.6. The line we broke below on Thursday at $1,827.6 has brought in $45.8 of pressure. Decent trade below $1,788.6-8.4 will warn of continued pressure; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. However, I would note there are areas of possible exhaustion for the move down from $1,856.6 that come in at $1,781.1, $1,771.9, $1,763.5, $1,745.9-5.7, and lower.
NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Gold and Energy complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts and provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.
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